"America is walking into a historical timeline which will shake to the core our diplomats, top strategy analysts and leaders of government. Our idealism of the past and for the future will be no match either intellectually or politically for the reality which awaits us. " LCDR Tammy Swofford, USNR, February 2008
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An estimated 5,000 Egyptians slept on the streets of the port city of Suez last night. Poor sleep architecture combined with anticipatory response will bring a potential increase in loss of life if the hidden hands within the movement do not move in effective manner via the street operatives to maintain a greater sense of calm and purpose. The mutual slogan, "No retreat, no surrender", voiced by police and protester alike shows the nature of government confronted with the will of the people.
The pop-techno (populist movement aided by technology) aspects of what is happening in Egypt will produce a more successful outcome than the Iranian venture in 2009. In the investigatorial environment inherited from SAVAK, the Iranians surely grasped the quick reaction time and rapid removal from the streets of the major players of their Sea of Green protest against the 2009 presidential election results. But they counted too heavily on Twitter as a means of communication and when their capabilities were blocked the movement fizzled. (Brute force also helps....)
Egyptian activists have worked to provide multiple means of eCommunication to keep the protests going. Everything from Twitter, to Facebook, audio advocacy by the Sheikh community and YouTube are being used to propagate message. Every cell phone captures history and every person on the street, a cub reporter. Alternate lanes of transmission appear to be quickly identified and what is happening in Egypt has a greater sense of inhabited political space.
Global consultants who directed their clients to establish a working relationship with Gamal Mubarak now face a credibility gap. At this point, reading the tea leaves might work as well.
Our Department of State has undoubtedly called up all members of crisis management teams and they are working overtime. Our contingency plans might contain the blueprints for managing the domino-effect of civil unrest. But with Tunisia, Lebanon and now possibly Egypt seeing the collapse of a status quo government our startled eyes must also move to Yemen. The end is possibly not in sight.
A strong psychological transition from the backward look at Tunisia to a forward look at how Egypt will function after their presidential "blessing" (Mubarak) is removed was noted late yesterday. The end of unrest in Egypt may prove the beginning of revolution in a new region. This growing political synergy could well produce a political tidal wave across the region.
Tammy Swofford
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