The Reinvention of Daniel Ortega

Daniel Ortega moved from Sandinista guerrilla, to party candidate of the FSLN, and winner of the 1984 presidential election in Nicaragua. He lost re-election bids as the Sandinista candidate in 1990, 1996 and 2001. But in November of 2006 Mr. Ortega moved to the forefront again in a presidential campaign which was a five-party race with Eduardo Montealegre being the nearest contender. On November 7th, Mr. Montealegre conceded the race to Daniel Ortega, with approximately 39 percent of the vote going to the winner. In a race which was highly monitored at the polls and prior to the election turn-out, the people pinned their hopes on a prior Nicaraguan president. On January 10th, 2007 Mr. Ortega again assumed the helm of what is one of the poorest nations in the Western Hemisphere, aside from Haiti and possibly Bolivia. Much has happened in the previous two decades since the heady days of "La Revolucion". And the reinvention of Daniel Ortega is merely a reflection of the waning effectiveness of American foreign policy in the Latin American heartlands and the nations south of us which border the Caribbean and Pacific continental shelf.

Within the cadre of foreign head of state and diplomats in attendance at the Omar Torrijos Non-Aligned Nations Plaza for the swearing in ceremony of Mr. Ortega was Hugo Chavez. Earlier in the same day, Mr. Chavez had been sworn into office for his third term as the president of Venezuela. One of his recent claims to fame was his reference to Mr. Bush as "the devil" while delivering his remarks to the U.N. General Assembly. Also in the group of well-wishers were Bolivian President Morales, and Cuban Vice President Jose Machado. In following the installation of a new administration, testing of the political waters is accomplished on several fronts. Observing any early bilateral signatory activity gives a sense of the political tempo and agenda for change of the new governing structure. And it was not the United States, which received a chair at the table for the first round.

Nicaragua became the fourth nation to sign ALBA (the Bolivian Alternative for the Americas, which is a trade agreement between Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela). So much for the CAFTA vote of October 2005. But Mr. Ortega was one of the lawmakers who was in the opposition camp, so no surprise here. Mr. Ortega and Mr. Chavez also signed additional bilateral trade agreements on January 11, 2007. President Chavez has extended an offer of approximately 600 million (U.S) dollars of yearly financial aid to Nicaragua which will dwarf the approximate 300-400 million per year which is received from the international community. As an aside, Nicaraguan nationals send remittances of approximately $500 million per year from the U.S. back to Nicaragua which also props up the local economy.

According to the most recent IMF report (Article IV, Articles of Agreement, which allows for team visits to assess economy and human development) Nicaragua is sustaining a stable macroeconomic environment but reduction of poverty remains a big issue. In 2006 the public sector debt was nearly 200 percent of GDP. Other statistics show that approximately 45 percent of the population lives on less than a dollar a day and nearly one million school-age children are not enrolled in school.

International petroleum prices have affected inflation and standard of living to say nothing of rampant corruption of previous administrations which keeps foreign investment at bay. Anti-American sentiment remains strong across the region. Daniel Ortega and entourage just loaded onto a loaner jet provided by Libyan President Muammar Qadhafi for a stint of cobblestone democracy to visit with heads of state in Algeria, Libya, Cuba and Iran. The office of the Supreme Leader Sayyid Ali Khameini makes the following happy announcement in their press release: During the visit of Daniel Ortega with President Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Khameini, he gives analysis that, "....signs of the collapse of America's unipolar power were emerging and....America is at present isolated among the nations." As I read this I get a mental picture: Smug looks, Mr. Ortega smiling at his astute observation, toasts around the table. But then the second picture crystallizes: Daniel with his hand outstretched. The country mouse off to visit the city mouse.

During the Cold War era there was room at the policy table for only the few, the behemoths of power. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union with concurrent juggernauting political rise of China and Iran, things have drastically changed. Both nations are active "players" on the African continent, and Iran more so, in Central and South America. The smallest and poorest of nations such as Nicaragua, now seek their place of influence in world affairs. They are finding their significance by cobbling together smaller regional alliances to form miniature power blocs of the future as they come under new masters, in a different hemisphere. The political alliance map is being redrawn. Our former friends will be our new enemies.

Tammy Swofford

tammyswofford@yahoo.com